Hurricanes: Stronger, slower, wetter in the future

  • A new analysis compares 22 named storms with possible hurricanes of the future.
  • The number of hurricanes and amount of rainfall are expected to increase– increasing concerns regarding coastal development.
  • The rainfall rate of simulated future storms would increase by an average of 24 percent.
  • Hurricane Harvey produced more than 4 feet of rain in some locations, breaking records and causing devastating flooding across the Houston area.
May 21, 2018 National Science Foundation Read full ScienceDaily article here
Scientists have developed a detailed analysis of how 22 recent hurricanes would be different if they formed under the conditions predicted for the late 21st century.
…Hurricane Ike — which killed more than 100 people and devastated parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2008 — could have 13 percent stronger winds, move 17 percent slower, and be 34 percent wetter if it formed in a future, warmer climate.

….”Our research suggests that future hurricanes could drop significantly more rain,” said NCAR scientist Ethan Gutmann, who led the study. “Hurricane Harvey demonstrated last year just how dangerous that can be.”

Harvey produced more than 4 feet of rain in some locations, breaking records and causing devastating flooding across the Houston area.

…”This study shows that the number of strong hurricanes, as a percent of total hurricanes each year, may increase,” said Ed Bensman, a program director in NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which supported the study. “With increasing development along coastlines, that has important implications for future storm damage.”….

Ethan D. Gutmann, Roy M. Rasmussen, Changhai Liu, Kyoko Ikeda, Cindy L. Bruyere, James M. Done, Luca Garrè, Peter Friis-Hansen, Vidyunmala Veldore. Changes in Hurricanes from a 13-Yr Convection-Permitting Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation. Journal of Climate, 2018; 31 (9): 3643 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0391.1